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long-term climate change adaptation is a difficult policy issue. as discussed in chapter 5, the world bank estimates that even the best adaptation scenarios only postpone the high-risk problem of coastal flooding for a few decades (o’neill et al., 2017 2409 ). the problem is further complicated by the difficulty of doing adaptation in the face of high uncertainty. sea level rise is most likely to be rapid in the first half of this century and there is a possibility of extensive slr in the second half. global slr already accounts for approximately 30% of the elevation of singapore, which has the second highest population density on the planet (28,500 people/km2). further increases in slr above that experienced over the last 50 years, combined with historical population and economic growth in some areas, means that slr will be responsible for approximately 50% of land elevation by 2100. there are many risks associated with managing coastal flooding as well as new slr induced pressures on the coastal ecosystem. slr may lead to changes in river velocity and water levels, salinity, sea-level pressure and beach erosion. the vulnerability of coastal ecosystems to slr is uncertain. for example, global slr by 2100 could result in the loss of 1 million mangrove acres and the displacement of approximately 500 million people that live in coastal zones (porter, 2017 2410 ). slr-induced coastal processes are likely to cause substantial and uncertain changes to coastal land use, including increased flood damage to infrastructure and changes to coastal morphology and coastal ecosystems. in many cases, the effects of slr will not be immediately felt, because they will occur over many decades. in addition, many of the impacts of slr will have delayed consequences for the coastal ecosystem and the resources that depend on it, including coastal fisheries and other ecosystems (unesco, 2019 2411 ).

indeed, social values, including economic ones, tend to be uncertain for many people. uncertainty not only exists on the individual level, but also on a group level because no single person can assess a social value objectively (dennig, 2018 2154 ). utility assessment also requires a functioning equilibrium, but environmental changes are typically associated with a disrupted equilibrium. the stability of an environmental resource base also depends on other factors. reductions in productivity and environmental pressures will lead to decreasing carrying capacities and prolonged droughts (cordell and nowlan, 1995 2155 ). hence, decision support tools that are based on expected utility approaches are not always applicable (section 1.1.4).
although expected utility methods are generally applicable in coastal management, the choice of the most appropriate method also depends on the type and complexity of the decision problem and the level of information on possible alternatives and possible consequences of the options. utility analysts focus on benefits and costs of possible choices (attribute values) and evaluate these by applying marginal rates of substitution that reflect comparative advantages of alternative choices. however, the differentiation of different objectives (see section 1.1.3) such as the goal of averting an economically adverse slr outcome versus a goal of promoting long-term economic development, cannot easily be captured by expected utility methods. this is the reason why marginal rate of substitution methods are rarely applied in the field of coastal management. the main reason for this is that marginal rates of substitution are based on expected utility theory and neglect the non-comparative aspects of social preferences such as equity preferences. equity theorists have recommended that assessments of utility should consider the distributional consequences of decision-making (mulder, 2009 2156 ). although social values such as equity can be assessed using a conventional expected utility approach (section 1.4), expected utility theory is not the adequate framework for analysing the choices in slr-risk mitigation. if expected utility theory is used with the caveat that it can be adjusted to account for equity outcomes, it is only one part of a framework for dealing with risk, where understanding the risk involved is just as important as understanding the value created by the reduction of risk. in this respect, expected utility theory provides an excellent framework for policy-making and planning in a social context, but not one for decision-making in the present day (section 1.4).
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